今日の為替市場ポイント:◆ユーロ編◆リスク回避的なユーロ売り・円買いがただちに強まる可能性は低い見通し

2025年01月28日 08:09:00
マネー
FISCO
コメント

本日の為替市場において、ユーロに対するリスク回避的な売りと円買いがただちに強まる可能性は低い見通しです。ユーロは2018年以降、ドルに対しては上昇と反落を繰り返し、現在は1.1ドル台を回復しています。また、ユーロ・円は欧州中央銀行（ECB）の追加利下げ見込みがあるものの、日欧の金利差拡大によって過去最高値に近い水準まで上昇しています。ただし、ECBはユーロ安を考慮して利下げを慎重に進める可能性があり、日本銀行の追加利上げも6月以降となるため、当面のユーロ売り圧力は限定的です。

*08:09JST 今日の為替市場ポイント:◆ユーロ編◆リスク回避的なユーロ売り・円買いがただちに強まる可能性は低い見通しユーロ・ドルは、1.0341ドル（2017/01/03）まで下落したが、1.2537ドル（2018/02/18）まで上昇。その後、0.9536（2022/09/28）まで反落したが、2024年にかけて1.1ドル台まで戻している。ユーロ・円は英国民投票で欧州連合（EU）からの離脱が決定し、一時109円57銭（2016/06/24）まで急落。その後137円50銭（2018/2/2）まで買われたあと、長期間伸び悩んだが、日欧金利差の拡大や円安・ドル高の進行を受けて175円16銭（2024/7/10）まで上昇。欧州中央銀行（ECB）は今週開催の理事会で追加利下げを決定する見込みだが、利下げは年内3回程度にとどまる可能性がある。そのため、リスク回避的なユーロ売り・円買いがただちに強まる可能性は低いとみられる。

【ユーロ売り要因】
・ECBは利下げを継続する可能性
・ユーロ圏経済の停滞懸念
・欧米とロシアの対立継続

【ユーロ買い要因】
・ECBはユーロ安を考慮して利下げを慎重に進める可能性
・日本銀行による追加利上げは6月以降となる可能性
・主要国の株高

＜CS＞

アクセスランキング

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