今日の為替市場ポイント:◆ユーロ編◆リスク選好的なユーロ買い・円売りがただちに強まる可能性は低い見通し

2025年01月24日 08:21:00
マネー
FISCO
コメント

ユーロと円の為替市場において、リスク選好的なユーロ買い・円売りがただちに強まる可能性は低いと予測されています。ユーロ・ドルは、過去数年で上下変動を続けており、2024年には1.1ドル台への回復が見込まれていますが、ユーロ・円も同様に変動しており、日欧金利差の拡大や円安・ドル高の進行を背景に175円16銭まで上昇しています。欧州中央銀行（ECB）が利下げ方針を慎重に遂行する一方、日本銀行は場合により追加利上げを行う可能性があるとされています。ユーロ売り圧力の要因にはECBの利下げ継続とユーロ圏の経済停滞、そして欧米とロシアの対立が挙げられる一方、ECBがユーロ安を考慮して利下げを慎重に進める点や、主要国の株高がユーロ買いの要因となっています。

*08:21JST 今日の為替市場ポイント:◆ユーロ編◆リスク選好的なユーロ買い・円売りがただちに強まる可能性は低い見通しユーロ・ドルは、1.0341ドル（2017/01/03）まで下落したが、1.2537ドル（2018/02/18）まで上昇。その後、0.9536（2022/09/28）まで反落したが、2024年にかけて1.1ドル台まで戻している。ユーロ・円は英国民投票で欧州連合（EU）からの離脱が決定し、一時109円57銭（2016/06/24）まで急落。その後137円50銭（2018/2/2）まで買われたあと、長期間伸び悩んだが、日欧金利差の拡大や円安・ドル高の進行を受けて175円16銭（2024/7/10）まで上昇。欧州中央銀行（ECB）は利下げを慎重に進める方針だが、日本銀行は追加利上げを決める可能性があるため、リスク選好的なユーロ買い・円売りがただちに強まる可能性は低いとみられる。

【ユーロ売り要因】
・ECBは利下げを継続する可能性
・ユーロ圏経済の停滞懸念
・欧米とロシアの対立継続

【ユーロ買い要因】
・ECBはユーロ安を考慮して利下げを慎重に進める可能性
・日本銀行による追加利上げは織り込み済み
・主要国の株高

＜CS＞

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