今日の為替市場ポイント:◆ユーロ編◆リスク回避的なユーロ売り・円買いがただちに強まる可能性は低い見通し

2025年01月16日 08:16:00
マネー
FISCO
コメント

ユーロ・ドルは過去数年で大きな変動を見せており、現在は2024年に向けて1.1ドル台に戻している。ユーロ・円は英国のEU離脱決定後に急落したが、その後は金利差と円安の影響で上昇している。一方、ECBは利下げに慎重であり、日本銀行も当面追加利上げを見送る可能性が高い。このため、リスク回避的なユーロ売り・円買いがすぐに強まる可能性は低いと考えられる。ユーロ売りにはECBの今後の利下げ継続や経済停滞懸念、対ロシア対立の継続が影響する。一方で、ECBの大幅な政策金利引下げの見込みが低いことや、日本銀行の政策による影響がユーロの強みとして挙げられている。

*08:16JST 今日の為替市場ポイント:◆ユーロ編◆リスク回避的なユーロ売り・円買いがただちに強まる可能性は低い見通しユーロ・ドルは、1.0341ドル（2017/01/03）まで下落したが、1.2537ドル（2018/02/18）まで上昇。その後、0.9536（2022/09/28）まで反落したが、2024年にかけて1.1ドル台まで戻している。ユーロ・円は英国民投票で欧州連合（EU）からの離脱が決定し、一時109円57銭（2016/06/24）まで急落。その後137円50銭（2018/2/2）まで買われたあと、長期間伸び悩んだが、日欧金利差の拡大や円安・ドル高の進行を受けて175円16銭（2024/7/10）まで上昇。欧州中央銀行（ECB）は利下げを慎重に進める方針を変えていないが、日本銀行は1月も追加利上げを見送る可能性が高いため、リスク回避的なユーロ売り・円買いがただちに強まる可能性は低いとみられる。

【ユーロ売り要因】
・ECBは2025年も利下げを継続する可能性
・ユーロ圏経済の停滞懸念
・欧米とロシアの対立継続

【ユーロ買い要因】
・ECBの政策金利が大幅に低下する可能性は低い
・日本銀行による追加利上げは3月以降となる可能性
・主要国の株高

＜CS＞

アクセスランキング

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