今日の為替市場ポイント:◆ユーロ編◆リスク回避的なユーロ売り・円買いがただちに強まる可能性は低いとみられる

2024年12月13日 08:52:00
マネー
FISCO
コメント

本日の為替市場では、ユーロに対するリスク回避的な売りと円の買いが直ちに活発化する可能性は低く見られています。過去数年、ユーロ・ドルは大きな変動を見せ、現在では2024年に1.1ドル台まで戻る傾向にあります。一方、ユーロ・円は欧州連合からの英国離脱の決定後に急落したものの、175円16銭まで上昇しています。これは、日欧金利差拡大や円安・ドル高が影響しています。ECBが2025年にも利下げを継続する見通しがある一方、日本銀行の12月の追加利上げ観測は後退しており、これが現状のユーロと円の市場影響に繋がっています。

*08:52JST 今日の為替市場ポイント:◆ユーロ編◆リスク回避的なユーロ売り・円買いがただちに強まる可能性は低いとみられるユーロ・ドルは、1.0341ドル（2017/01/03）まで下落したが、1.2537ドル（2018/02/18）まで上昇。その後、0.9536（2022/09/28）まで反落したが、2024年にかけて1.1ドル台まで戻している。ユーロ・円は英国民投票で欧州連合（EU）からの離脱が決定し、一時109円57銭（2016/06/24）まで急落。その後137円50銭（2018/2/2）まで買われたあと、長期間伸び悩んだが、日欧金利差の拡大や円安・ドル高の進行を受けて175円16銭（2024/7/10）まで上昇。欧州中央銀行（ECB）は2025年も利下げを継続する見通し。一方、日本銀行による12月追加利上げ観測は後退しており、リスク回避的なユーロ売り・円買いがただちに強まる可能性は低いとみられる。

【ユーロ売り要因】
・ECBは2025年も利下げを継続する可能性
・日本銀行による12月追加利上げの可能性残る
・欧米とロシアの対立深まる

【ユーロ買い要因】
・ECBの政策金利は段階的に低下へ
・日本銀行は利上げを急がない方針
・主要国の株高

＜NH＞

アクセスランキング

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