今日の為替市場ポイント:◆ユーロ編◆リスク回避的なユーロ売り・円買いがただちに強まる可能性は低いとみられる

2024年12月12日 08:55:00
マネー
FISCO
コメント

今日の為替市場では、ユーロに関してリスク回避的な売りや円買いが急速に強まる可能性は低いと予想されています。ユーロ・ドルの過去の動きでは、2017年から2022年の間に上下するものの、現在は1.1ドル台を保っています。一方で、ユーロ・円は2016年の英国民投票後には一時急落しましたが、今では175円台まで上昇しています。これは欧州中央銀行（ECB）の利下げ継続や円安・ドル高の影響によるものです。ユーロ売りの要因には、ECBの2025年までの利下げ継続や日本銀行の利上げの可能性が挙げられます。しかし、ユーロ買いの要因としては、ECBの段階的な政策金利低下や日本銀行が急がない利上げ方針などがあります。

*08:55JST 今日の為替市場ポイント:◆ユーロ編◆リスク回避的なユーロ売り・円買いがただちに強まる可能性は低いとみられるユーロ・ドルは、1.0341ドル（2017/01/03）まで下落したが、1.2537ドル（2018/02/18）まで上昇。その後、0.9536（2022/09/28）まで反落したが、2024年にかけて1.1ドル台まで戻している。ユーロ・円は英国民投票で欧州連合（EU）からの離脱が決定し、一時109円57銭（2016/06/24）まで急落。その後137円50銭（2018/2/2）まで買われたあと、長期間伸び悩んだが、日欧金利差の拡大や円安・ドル高の進行を受けて175円16銭（2024/7/10）まで上昇。欧州中央銀行（ECB）は2025年も利下げを継続する可能性が高い。一方、日本銀行による早期追加利下げの思惑は後退しており、リスク回避的なユーロ売り・円買いがただちに強まる可能性は低いとみられる。

【ユーロ売り要因】
・ECBは2025年も利下げを継続する可能性
・日本銀行による12月追加利上げの可能性残る
・欧米とロシアの対立深まる

【ユーロ買い要因】
・ECBの政策金利は段階的に低下へ
・日本銀行は利上げを急がない方針
・主要国の株高

＜NH＞

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