今日の為替市場ポイント:◆ユーロ編◆リスク選好的なユーロ買い・円売りがただちに強まる可能性は低いとみられる

2024年12月10日 08:56:00
マネー
FISCO
コメント

ユーロは過去数年間で大幅な変動を見せています。特にユーロ・ドルとユーロ・円の動きが注目されており、長期的には緩やかな上昇を見せています。しかし、市場はドイツ経済の停滞やECBの継続的な利下げの可能性から慎重です。具体的には、2025年もECBが利下げを続ける見通しがある一方、日本の金利政策の動向もユーロへの影響を与える要素です。日本銀行の12月の追加利上げの可能性もユーロの動向に影響します。地政学的リスクとして、欧米とロシアの対立が深まりつつあることも挙げられ、これらの要因がユーロの買い材料と売り材料とを複雑に絡ませています。

*08:56JST 今日の為替市場ポイント:◆ユーロ編◆リスク選好的なユーロ買い・円売りがただちに強まる可能性は低いとみられるユーロ・ドルは、1.0341ドル（2017/01/03）まで下落したが、1.2537ドル（2018/02/18）まで上昇。その後、0.9536（2022/09/28）まで反落したが、2024年にかけて1.1ドル台まで戻している。ユーロ・円は英国民投票で欧州連合（EU）からの離脱が決定し、一時109円57銭（2016/06/24）まで急落。その後137円50銭（2018/2/2）まで買われたあと、長期間伸び悩んだが、日欧金利差の拡大や円安・ドル高の進行を受けて175円16銭（2024/7/10）まで上昇。ドイツ経済の停滞に対応して欧州中央銀行（ECB）は2025年も利下げを継続すると予想されているため、リスク選好的なユーロ買い・円売りがただちに強まる可能性は低いとみられる。

【ユーロ売り要因】
・ECBは2025年も利下げを継続する可能性
・日本銀行による12月追加利上げの可能性残る
・欧米とロシアの対立深まる

【ユーロ買い要因】
・ECBの政策金利は段階的に低下へ
・日本銀行は利上げを急がない方針
・主要国の株高

＜NH＞

アクセスランキング

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