今日の為替市場ポイント:◆ユーロ編◆リスク選好的なユーロ買い・円売りがただちに強まる可能性は低い見通し

2024年12月06日 08:31:00
マネー
FISCO
コメント

現在の為替市場では、ユーロ買い・円売りが急速に強まる可能性は低いと見込まれています。ユーロ・ドルは2018年にかけて上昇したものの、その後下落して再び1.1ドル台まで戻しました。一方、ユーロ・円は英国のEU離脱後に急落しましたが、2024年中に175円を超えるまで上昇しました。まだユーロ買いの動きが慎重とされる背景には、欧州中央銀行（ECB）が2025年も利下げを続ける見込みや、日銀の追加利上げの可能性が残っていること、独仏の政治不安の未解決が挙げられます。しかし、一部では主要国の株価上昇やECBの段階的利下げ、日本銀行の緩やかな利上げ姿勢がユーロ支持材料として機能しています。

*08:31JST 今日の為替市場ポイント:◆ユーロ編◆リスク選好的なユーロ買い・円売りがただちに強まる可能性は低い見通しユーロ・ドルは、1.0341ドル（2017/01/03）まで下落したが、1.2537ドル（2018/02/18）まで上昇。その後、0.9536（2022/09/28）まで反落したが、2024年にかけて1.1ドル台まで戻している。ユーロ・円は英国民投票で欧州連合（EU）からの離脱が決定し、一時109円57銭（2016/06/24）まで急落。その後137円50銭（2018/2/2）まで買われたあと、長期間伸び悩んだが、日欧金利差の拡大や円安・ドル高の進行を受けて175円16銭（2024/7/10）まで上昇。欧州中央銀行（ECB）は2025年も利下げを行う見込みであること、独仏の政治不安は解消されていないことから、リスク選好的なユーロ買い・円売りがただちに強まる可能性は低いとみられる。

【ユーロ売り要因】
・ECBは2025年も利下げを継続する可能性
・日本銀行による12月追加利上げの可能性残る
・欧米とロシアの対立深まる

【ユーロ買い要因】
・ECBの政策金利は段階的に低下へ
・日本銀行は利上げを急がない方針
・主要国の株高

＜CS＞

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