今日の為替市場ポイント:◆ユーロ編◆リスク選好的なユーロ買い・円売りがただちに強まる可能性は低い見通し

2024年11月26日 08:02:00
マネー
FISCO
コメント

ユーロは過去数年の間に大きな変動を見せ、2024年には1.1ドル台に戻している。ユーロ・円は欧州連合（EU）離脱決定後の大幅な下落から持ち直し、現在は175円16銭まで上昇している。欧州中央銀行（ECB）は12月に追加利下げを予定しており、これによりユーロ売り要因が強くなると見られる。一方で、ECBが急激に政策金利を下げる見通しは薄れ、これがユーロ買い要因となる可能性もある。しかし、欧米とロシアの対立が継続し、リスク選好的なユーロ買い・円売りがすぐに強まる可能性は低い。

*08:02JST 今日の為替市場ポイント:◆ユーロ編◆リスク選好的なユーロ買い・円売りがただちに強まる可能性は低い見通しユーロ・ドルは、1.0341ドル（2017/01/03）まで下落したが、1.2537ドル（2018/02/18）まで上昇。その後、0.9536（2022/09/28）まで反落したが、2024年にかけて1.1ドル台まで戻している。ユーロ・円は英国民投票で欧州連合（EU）からの離脱が決定し、一時109円57銭（2016/06/24）まで急落。その後137円50銭（2018/2/2）まで買われたあと、長期間伸び悩んだが、日欧金利差の拡大や円安・ドル高の進行を受けて175円16銭（2024/7/10）まで上昇。欧州中央銀行（ECB）は12月に追加利下げを行う見込みだが、利下げは2025年も続く可能性がある。また、欧米とロシアの対立がすみやかに解消される見込みは薄いことから、リスク選好的なユーロ買い・円売りがただちに強まる可能性は低いとみられる。

【ユーロ売り要因】
・ECBによる12月追加利下げ観測
・日本銀行による追加利上げの可能性残る
・欧米とロシアの対立深まる

【ユーロ買い要因】
・ECBの政策金利が大幅に低下するとの見方は後退
・日本銀行は利上げを急がない方針
・主要国の株高

＜CS＞

アクセスランキング

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