今日の為替市場ポイント:◆ユーロ編◆リスク選好的なユーロ買い・円売りがただちに強まる可能性は低い見通し

2024年11月20日 08:10:00
マネー
FISCO
コメント

ユーロ相場は、中長期的な見通しの不透明さから、リスク選好によるユーロ買い・円売りの強まりは現時点では見込まれていません。特に欧州中央銀行（ECB）の利下げ観測や、ユーロ圏のインフレ見通しの不透明さ、ドイツ経済の停滞懸念がユーロ売り要因となっています。しかし、ECBの政策金利低下期待は後退しており、日本銀行の金融正常化期待も低いため、ユーロの買い要因としては、主要国株高が挙げられます。過去のユーロの動きを見ると、複数の要素が相互作用し、市場動向が変動しています。

*08:10JST 今日の為替市場ポイント:◆ユーロ編◆リスク選好的なユーロ買い・円売りがただちに強まる可能性は低い見通しユーロ・ドルは、1.0341ドル（2017/01/03）まで下落したが、1.2537ドル（2018/02/18）まで上昇。その後、0.9536（2022/09/28）まで反落したが、2024年にかけて1.1ドル台まで戻している。ユーロ・円は英国民投票で欧州連合（EU）からの離脱が決定し、一時109円57銭（2016/06/24）まで急落。その後137円50銭（2018/2/2）まで買われたあと、長期間伸び悩んだが、日欧金利差の拡大や円安・ドル高の進行を受けて175円16銭（2024/7/10）まで上昇。欧州中央銀行（ECB）の中長期的な政策金利見通しは引き続き不透明だが、欧米とロシアの対立が深まっているため、リスク選好的なユーロ買い・円売りがただちに強まる可能性は低いとみられる。

【ユーロ売り要因】
・ECBによる12月追加利下げ観測
・ユーロ圏のインフレ見通しは不透明
・ドイツ経済の停滞懸念

【ユーロ買い要因】
・ECBの政策金利が来年にかけて大幅に低下するとの見方は後退
・日本銀行による金融正常化への期待は後退
・主要国の株高

＜CS＞

アクセスランキング

Tips

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