今日の為替市場ポイント:◆ユーロ編◆リスク回避的なユーロ売り・円買いがただちに強まる可能性は低い見通し

2024年11月19日 08:37:00
マネー
FISCO
コメント

過去数年間でユーロ/ドルやユーロ/円の取引相場は大きく変動してきました。ユーロ・ドルは2018年の中頃から2022年にかけて下落していましたが、2024年には1.1ドル台まで回復しています。一方、ユーロ・円はEUからの英国の離脱投票後の急落後、円安とドル高の影響で2024年には175円台まで上昇しました。今後については、欧州中央銀行（ECB）の政策金利見通しが不透明であるため、ユーロのリスク回避的な売りがただちに強まる可能性は低いです。ユーロ売りの要因としては、ECBの追加利下げ観測やドイツ経済の停滞懸念があります。しかし、ユーロ買いを支える要素として、ECBが大幅な利下げを行う展望の後退や日本銀行の金融正常化期待の低下、主要国の株高があります。

*08:37JST 今日の為替市場ポイント:◆ユーロ編◆リスク回避的なユーロ売り・円買いがただちに強まる可能性は低い見通しユーロ・ドルは、1.0341ドル（2017/01/03）まで下落したが、1.2537ドル（2018/02/18）まで上昇。その後、0.9536（2022/09/28）まで反落したが、2024年にかけて1.1ドル台まで戻している。ユーロ・円は英国民投票で欧州連合（EU）からの離脱が決定し、一時109円57銭（2016/06/24）まで急落。その後137円50銭（2018/2/2）まで買われたあと、長期間伸び悩んだが、日欧金利差の拡大や円安・ドル高の進行を受けて175円16銭（2024/7/10）まで上昇。欧州中央銀行（ECB）の中長期的な政策金利見通しは引き続き不透明。一方、日本銀行による早期利上げ観測はやや後退しており、リスク回避的なユーロ売り・円買いがただちに強まる可能性は低いとみられる。

【ユーロ売り要因】
・ECBによる12月追加利下げ観測
・ユーロ圏のインフレ見通しは不透明
・ドイツ経済の停滞懸念

【ユーロ買い要因】
・ECBの政策金利が来年にかけて大幅に低下するとの見方は後退
・日本銀行による金融正常化への期待は後退
・主要国の株高

＜CS＞

アクセスランキング

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