今日の為替市場ポイント:◆ユーロ編◆リスク選好的なユーロ買い・円売りが一段と拡大する可能性は低いか

2024年10月24日 09:09:00
マネー
FISCO
コメント

近年のユーロ・ドル相場は、1.0341ドルから始まり1.2537ドルまで上昇し、その後0.9536まで下落しましたが、2024年には1.1ドル台に戻ると予測されています。ユーロ・円は、EU脱退決定時に急落し、その後137円50銭まで買い戻されましたが、長期間停滞していました。しかし最近の円安・ドル高の進行と日欧金利差の影響で、175円16銭に達しています。ヨーロッパ中央銀行（ECB）が12月の会合で追加利下げを行う可能性があり、日本銀行が年内に追加利上げを行うことは低いとされています。これにより、リスク選好的なユーロ買い・円売りが一段と拡大する可能性は低いとされています。

*09:09JST 今日の為替市場ポイント:◆ユーロ編◆リスク選好的なユーロ買い・円売りが一段と拡大する可能性は低いかユーロ・ドルは、1.0341ドル（2017/01/03）まで下落したが、1.2537ドル（2018/02/18）まで上昇。その後、0.9536（2022/09/28）まで反落したが、2024年にかけて1.1ドル台まで戻している。ユーロ・円は英国民投票で欧州連合（EU）からの離脱が決定し、一時109円57銭（2016/06/24）まで急落。その後137円50銭（2018/2/2）まで買われたあと、長期間伸び悩んだが、日欧金利差の拡大や円安・ドル高の進行を受けて175円16銭（2024/7/10）まで上昇。欧州中央銀行（ECB）は12月の理事会でも追加利下げを決定する可能性が高い。日本銀行による年内追加利上げの可能性は高くないものの、リスク選好的なユーロ買い・円売りが一段と拡大する可能性は低いとみられる。

【ユーロ売り要因】
・ECBによる12月追加利下げ観測
・日欧金利差の縮小観測
・ドイツ経済の停滞懸念

【ユーロ買い要因】
・中東情勢の改善期待
・日本銀行は追加利上げを急がない方針
・主要国の株高

＜NH＞

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