反発、75日線水準を回復できるか

2025年01月16日 08:25:00
マネー
FISCO
コメント

本日の日経平均は、前日の米国株急上昇を背景に買い戻しの動きが強まることが予想されています。前日の下落からの反動で、自律反発の動きが見られる可能性がありますが、200日移動平均線が上値を抑える一方で、ボリンジャーバンドの-2σ水準で推移しているため、下方への警戒感も続いています。特に、雲のねじれを下抜けた一目均衡表や、実線を割り込んだ遅行スパンが示す下方シグナルに注意が必要です。75日線を上回って、再度上昇するかどうかが注目点となっています。

*08:25JST 反発、75日線水準を回復できるか [本日の想定レンジ]
15日の米NYダウは703.27ドル高の43221.55、ナスダック総合指数は466.84pt高の19511.23、シカゴ日経225先物は大阪日中比365円高の38755円だった。本日の日経平均は連日の株価下落の反動から買い戻しの動きが強まる展開が予想される。前日は200日移動平均線を上回って始まったものの買いが続かなかった。200日線に上値を抑えられた一方で、下値はボリンジャーバンドの-2σ水準での推移。バンドは拡大しており、-2σの低下に沿った調整から、-3σに接近する局面での38000円割れが警戒される。一目均衡表では雲がねじれを起こす局面で雲を下抜け、遅行スパンは実線を割り込んで下方シグナルを発生させてきた。マドを空けた状態での連続陰線となっており、強い下振れには警戒したいところだ。ただ、米国株の急上昇を背景に本日は自律反発の動きが想定され、ボリンジャーバンドの-2α付近から買い戻しの動きが向かう可能性は残る。75日線水準を上回り一昨日に空けたマドを埋められるか注目したい。

[予想レンジ]
上限39200円－下限38400円

＜SK＞

アクセスランキング

Tips

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