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明治学院大学経済学部 田中鉄二准教授が食料供給を安定させる方法を提唱・実証 衛星から得られる収穫予測情報と北・南半球の季節性の違いを利用



図1:リモートセンシング(NDVI)によるロシア、ウクライナの小麦収穫予測


図2:世界の小麦・大豆の作物カレンダー


図3:リモートセンシングによるブラジルの大豆収穫予測

明治学院大学経済学部 田中鉄二准教授が食料供給を安定させる方法を提唱・実証する論文を発表いたしました。


◆論文概要
世界の食糧安全保障は、気候変動や地域の紛争によってますます脅かされています。農産物の輸出大国での生産性の変動は輸入国の市場に影響を与えます。本研究では、衛星画像から得られる早期予測情報を世界の農家がすぐに入手できた場合、国際農産物市場をどの程度安定化できるかを経済モデルにより実証しました。本分析では2008年と2012年のロシア・ウクライナ地域の小麦の豊作と不作、2012年のブラジルの大豆の不作を例にそれを季節の異なる(すなわち播種と収穫の時期の異なる)地域の農家が情報を利用できたと仮定しています。その結果、ロシア・ウクライナの不作の場合、1.2%-9.3%輸入国の価格を上昇させ、豊作の場合5.5%-12.6%価格を下落させる効果が見られました。
また、ブラジルの不作の場合、輸入国の大豆価格を7.3%-22.3%下落させ、市場を安定させる効果があることが確認できました。


◆研究者所属・研究者氏名
研究者所属: 明治学院大学 経済学部 経済学科
研究者氏名: 田中鉄二准教授
研究者情報: https://gyoseki.meijigakuin.ac.jp/mguhp/KgApp/k03/resid/S000555


◆掲載誌名・DOI
掲載誌名 : Communications Earth & Environment
掲載誌URL : https://www.nature.com/commsenv/
論文タイトル: 「Satellite forecasting of crop harvest can trigger a cross-hemispheric production response and improve global food security」
論文URL : https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00992-2
DOI : https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00992-2
著者 : Tetsuji Tanaka, Laixiang Sun, Inbal Becker-Reshef, Xiao-Peng Song & Estefania Puricelli


◆本研究のポイント
本研究で衛星から得られる作物の収穫予測情報と北半球と南半球の季節性の違いを利用して食料供給を安定させる方法を提唱し、実証した事が最も重要なポイントです。具体的にはロシアやウクライナは世界最大級の小麦輸出地域ですが、2012年、小麦の不作に直面しました(図1)。その不作は同年7月にメディアで報じられ、すぐに金融市場の小麦価格は高騰しました。しかし、衛星画像を使った最新の予測技術を用いた方法ではその不作が5月や6月に既に認識できる可能性があります。
北半球と南半球の季節の違いのため、作物の播種と収穫の時期が異なり(図2)、小麦の場合、7月に北半球の不作が判明したとしても南半球の小麦農家は増産できませんが、5月や6月に情報を得られれば、多くの小麦農家が不作と価格高騰を予測して増産するインセンティブを持ちます。その結果、北半球で減少した収穫を部分的に南半球の増産で埋め合わせます。その反対に北半球で豊作であることが早期に分かれば、南半球の農家は価格低下を予測し、減産します。すなわち、早期予測情報により、国際小麦価格は安定化されることになります。これは大豆においても同様の事が可能であることが下表からわかります(図3)。本研究では世界規模の応用一般均衡モデルを構築し、上述の価格安定化メカニズムを実証しました。

この提案された安定化メカニズムの良い点は早期予測情報を一部の人々に秘匿にするのではなく、全世界の誰でもアクセスできるようにし、農家の利潤最大化行動にゆだねる事で市場安定化に導けるところにあります。すなわち、一度モニタリング情報を生み出せば、多くの経済政策と異なり、市場に介入するのではなく、市場の自由な動きを利用するので財政を悪化させることなく世界の食料安全保障を改善できる点もこのメカニズムの素晴らしい点です。

図1:リモートセンシング(NDVI)によるロシア、ウクライナの小麦収穫予測
a) 2008年 b)2012年
出所:The Global Agriculture Monitoring System (GLAM) https://glam.nasaharvest.org/
画像1: https://www.atpress.ne.jp/releases/403884/LL_img_403884_1.jpg
図1:リモートセンシング(NDVI)によるロシア、ウクライナの小麦収穫予測

図2:世界の小麦・大豆の作物カレンダー
データソース:USDA
画像2: https://www.atpress.ne.jp/releases/403884/LL_img_403884_2.jpg
図2:世界の小麦・大豆の作物カレンダー

図3:リモートセンシングによるブラジルの大豆収穫予測
a) 2011年 b) 2012年
出所:Tanaka et al. (2023)
画像3: https://www.atpress.ne.jp/releases/403884/LL_img_403884_3.jpg
図3:リモートセンシングによるブラジルの大豆収穫予測

◆研究内容
・背景
リモートセンシング分野の技術レベルの向上により地球のモニタリングが改善されてきています。そのひとつとして農産物の生育状況の把握があります。しかしながら、農産物モニタリング情報を十分に役立てる方法が提案されてきませんでした。そこで北半球と南半球の季節性の違いと早期予測情報を利用して国際農産物市場の安定化ができることを思いつきました。このような地球規模での安定化メカニズムを提案している研究はこれまでになかったので、それがどの程度の効果をもたらすかを数量モデルで実証しました。

・本研究で得られた結果と知見
ロシア・ウクライナの小麦の豊作であった2008年、小麦輸入国市場で1.2%-9.3%価格を上昇させ、不作であった2012年には5.5%-12.6%価格を下落させる効果が見られました。ブラジルで大豆の不作であった2012年は価格高騰を7.3%-22.3%緩和する事が分かりました。世界の供給量は2008年と2012年それぞれ約280万トンの減少、約340万トンの増加をさせる事が明らかとなりました。

・今後の研究展開および波及効果
この研究は基本的には価格の安定化に着目しましたので、他の要素はまだ分析されていません。例えば、南半球の農家が北半球の早期予測情報を得られた場合、自身が所有する農地の何パーセントをその該当する作物に割り当て、他の作物を減らすのかをより細かく描写できるようにしたいと思います。また、そのような変化をもたらした結果、農家の所得がどれくらい増加するのかといった疑問にも答えていきたいと考えております。

この研究は現実に実装されてこそ意味のあるものになります。そのために、農作物のモニタリングの精度をより改善しなければなりません。また地理学者が推定しますが、そのスピードを上げるための研究が必要となるでしょう。これらを達成するための研究に国際機関や先進国が投資をこれまでよりも行わなければなりません。
(明治学院大学経済学部 准教授 田中鉄二)


□■明治学院大学について■□
創設者は“ヘボン式ローマ字”の考案や和英・英和辞書『和英語林集成』の編纂、聖書の日本語訳完成などの業績があるJ.C.ヘボン博士。明治学院の淵源となる「ヘボン塾」が横浜に開かれた1863年を創設年としています。建学の精神である「キリスト教による人格教育」と学問の自由を基礎とし、ヘボン博士が貫いた“Do for Others(他者への貢献)”を教育理念としています。広く教養を培うとともに、各学部学科において専門分野に関する知識・技能および知的応用能力を身につけた人間の育成を目指します。2024年に本学初の理系学部「情報数理学部」を開設し、既存の学部・組織との有機的な連携、産学官連携を行うため「情報科学融合領域センター」も併せて開設しました。
https://www.meijigakuin.ac.jp
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    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 386
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/cache/smarty/d064ec4523cd2f49c67136b7b84705846d19c90b_0.file.side.tpl.php
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    Function: _subTemplateRender

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_resource_base.php
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    Function: content_66f26b47775ef5_14228348

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_compiled.php
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    Function: getRenderedTemplateCode

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
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    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
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    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/cache/smarty/597cefa22c7600eaa32b117569a9685c70819274_0.file.show.tpl.php
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    Function: _subTemplateRender

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_runtime_inheritance.php
    Line: 248
    Function: callBlock

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_runtime_inheritance.php
    Line: 184
    Function: callBlock

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_runtime_inheritance.php
    Line: 186
    Function: process

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_runtime_inheritance.php
    Line: 156
    Function: process

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/cache/smarty/fbdaa42e51518f8881faeabdc1199f6dd175d1ce_0.file.base_index_layout.tpl.php
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    Function: instanceBlock

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_resource_base.php
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    Function: content_66f26b3cb92fa0_94546305

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_compiled.php
    Line: 114
    Function: getRenderedTemplateCode

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 217
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 386
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_runtime_inheritance.php
    Line: 116
    Function: _subTemplateRender

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/cache/smarty/597cefa22c7600eaa32b117569a9685c70819274_0.file.show.tpl.php
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    Function: endChild

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    Line: 123
    Function: content_675a781dcbf339_49719938

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_compiled.php
    Line: 114
    Function: getRenderedTemplateCode

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 217
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_templatebase.php
    Line: 238
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_templatebase.php
    Line: 116
    Function: _execute

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/libraries/SmartyLibrary.php
    Line: 45
    Function: fetch

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/controllers/ArticleController.php
    Line: 32
    Function: view

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/public/index.php
    Line: 292
    Function: require_once

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    Line Number: 41

    Backtrace:

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/cache/smarty/08d1cc69876d91563afb9c1f4d21cc8b7b96caa4_0.file.tips.tpl.php
    Line: 41
    Function: _error_handler

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_resource_base.php
    Line: 123
    Function: content_66f26b3d14aa11_83151422

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_compiled.php
    Line: 114
    Function: getRenderedTemplateCode

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 217
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 386
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/cache/smarty/d064ec4523cd2f49c67136b7b84705846d19c90b_0.file.side.tpl.php
    Line: 43
    Function: _subTemplateRender

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_resource_base.php
    Line: 123
    Function: content_66f26b47775ef5_14228348

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_compiled.php
    Line: 114
    Function: getRenderedTemplateCode

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 217
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 386
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/cache/smarty/597cefa22c7600eaa32b117569a9685c70819274_0.file.show.tpl.php
    Line: 416
    Function: _subTemplateRender

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_runtime_inheritance.php
    Line: 248
    Function: callBlock

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_runtime_inheritance.php
    Line: 184
    Function: callBlock

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_runtime_inheritance.php
    Line: 186
    Function: process

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_runtime_inheritance.php
    Line: 156
    Function: process

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/cache/smarty/fbdaa42e51518f8881faeabdc1199f6dd175d1ce_0.file.base_index_layout.tpl.php
    Line: 88
    Function: instanceBlock

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_resource_base.php
    Line: 123
    Function: content_66f26b3cb92fa0_94546305

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_compiled.php
    Line: 114
    Function: getRenderedTemplateCode

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 217
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 386
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_runtime_inheritance.php
    Line: 116
    Function: _subTemplateRender

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/cache/smarty/597cefa22c7600eaa32b117569a9685c70819274_0.file.show.tpl.php
    Line: 71
    Function: endChild

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_resource_base.php
    Line: 123
    Function: content_675a781dcbf339_49719938

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_compiled.php
    Line: 114
    Function: getRenderedTemplateCode

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 217
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_templatebase.php
    Line: 238
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_templatebase.php
    Line: 116
    Function: _execute

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/libraries/SmartyLibrary.php
    Line: 45
    Function: fetch

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/controllers/ArticleController.php
    Line: 32
    Function: view

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/public/index.php
    Line: 292
    Function: require_once

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    Severity: Notice

    Message: Trying to access array offset on value of type null

    Filename: smarty/49292b3df7e5bd60f7381ff16c5ca4532cf9476f_0.file.card.tpl.php

    Line Number: 24

    Backtrace:

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/cache/smarty/49292b3df7e5bd60f7381ff16c5ca4532cf9476f_0.file.card.tpl.php
    Line: 24
    Function: _error_handler

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_resource_base.php
    Line: 123
    Function: content_66f26b3d136f97_11902452

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_compiled.php
    Line: 114
    Function: getRenderedTemplateCode

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 384
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/cache/smarty/08d1cc69876d91563afb9c1f4d21cc8b7b96caa4_0.file.tips.tpl.php
    Line: 41
    Function: _subTemplateRender

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_resource_base.php
    Line: 123
    Function: content_66f26b3d14aa11_83151422

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_compiled.php
    Line: 114
    Function: getRenderedTemplateCode

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 217
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 386
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/cache/smarty/d064ec4523cd2f49c67136b7b84705846d19c90b_0.file.side.tpl.php
    Line: 43
    Function: _subTemplateRender

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_resource_base.php
    Line: 123
    Function: content_66f26b47775ef5_14228348

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_compiled.php
    Line: 114
    Function: getRenderedTemplateCode

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 217
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 386
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/cache/smarty/597cefa22c7600eaa32b117569a9685c70819274_0.file.show.tpl.php
    Line: 416
    Function: _subTemplateRender

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_runtime_inheritance.php
    Line: 248
    Function: callBlock

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_runtime_inheritance.php
    Line: 184
    Function: callBlock

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_runtime_inheritance.php
    Line: 186
    Function: process

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_runtime_inheritance.php
    Line: 156
    Function: process

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/cache/smarty/fbdaa42e51518f8881faeabdc1199f6dd175d1ce_0.file.base_index_layout.tpl.php
    Line: 88
    Function: instanceBlock

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_resource_base.php
    Line: 123
    Function: content_66f26b3cb92fa0_94546305

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_compiled.php
    Line: 114
    Function: getRenderedTemplateCode

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 217
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 386
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_runtime_inheritance.php
    Line: 116
    Function: _subTemplateRender

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/cache/smarty/597cefa22c7600eaa32b117569a9685c70819274_0.file.show.tpl.php
    Line: 71
    Function: endChild

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_resource_base.php
    Line: 123
    Function: content_675a781dcbf339_49719938

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_compiled.php
    Line: 114
    Function: getRenderedTemplateCode

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 217
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_templatebase.php
    Line: 238
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_templatebase.php
    Line: 116
    Function: _execute

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/libraries/SmartyLibrary.php
    Line: 45
    Function: fetch

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/controllers/ArticleController.php
    Line: 32
    Function: view

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/public/index.php
    Line: 292
    Function: require_once

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    Severity: Notice

    Message: Trying to access array offset on value of type null

    Filename: smarty/49292b3df7e5bd60f7381ff16c5ca4532cf9476f_0.file.card.tpl.php

    Line Number: 29

    Backtrace:

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/cache/smarty/49292b3df7e5bd60f7381ff16c5ca4532cf9476f_0.file.card.tpl.php
    Line: 29
    Function: _error_handler

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_resource_base.php
    Line: 123
    Function: content_66f26b3d136f97_11902452

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_compiled.php
    Line: 114
    Function: getRenderedTemplateCode

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 384
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/cache/smarty/08d1cc69876d91563afb9c1f4d21cc8b7b96caa4_0.file.tips.tpl.php
    Line: 41
    Function: _subTemplateRender

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_resource_base.php
    Line: 123
    Function: content_66f26b3d14aa11_83151422

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_compiled.php
    Line: 114
    Function: getRenderedTemplateCode

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 217
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 386
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/cache/smarty/d064ec4523cd2f49c67136b7b84705846d19c90b_0.file.side.tpl.php
    Line: 43
    Function: _subTemplateRender

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_resource_base.php
    Line: 123
    Function: content_66f26b47775ef5_14228348

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_compiled.php
    Line: 114
    Function: getRenderedTemplateCode

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 217
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 386
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/cache/smarty/597cefa22c7600eaa32b117569a9685c70819274_0.file.show.tpl.php
    Line: 416
    Function: _subTemplateRender

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_runtime_inheritance.php
    Line: 248
    Function: callBlock

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_runtime_inheritance.php
    Line: 184
    Function: callBlock

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_runtime_inheritance.php
    Line: 186
    Function: process

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_runtime_inheritance.php
    Line: 156
    Function: process

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/cache/smarty/fbdaa42e51518f8881faeabdc1199f6dd175d1ce_0.file.base_index_layout.tpl.php
    Line: 88
    Function: instanceBlock

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_resource_base.php
    Line: 123
    Function: content_66f26b3cb92fa0_94546305

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_compiled.php
    Line: 114
    Function: getRenderedTemplateCode

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 217
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 386
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_runtime_inheritance.php
    Line: 116
    Function: _subTemplateRender

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/cache/smarty/597cefa22c7600eaa32b117569a9685c70819274_0.file.show.tpl.php
    Line: 71
    Function: endChild

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_resource_base.php
    Line: 123
    Function: content_675a781dcbf339_49719938

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_compiled.php
    Line: 114
    Function: getRenderedTemplateCode

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 217
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_templatebase.php
    Line: 238
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_templatebase.php
    Line: 116
    Function: _execute

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/libraries/SmartyLibrary.php
    Line: 45
    Function: fetch

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/controllers/ArticleController.php
    Line: 32
    Function: view

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/public/index.php
    Line: 292
    Function: require_once

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    Severity: Notice

    Message: Undefined offset: 2

    Filename: smarty/08d1cc69876d91563afb9c1f4d21cc8b7b96caa4_0.file.tips.tpl.php

    Line Number: 41

    Backtrace:

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/cache/smarty/08d1cc69876d91563afb9c1f4d21cc8b7b96caa4_0.file.tips.tpl.php
    Line: 41
    Function: _error_handler

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_resource_base.php
    Line: 123
    Function: content_66f26b3d14aa11_83151422

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_template_compiled.php
    Line: 114
    Function: getRenderedTemplateCode

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 217
    Function: render

    File: /www/wwwroot/homev2.kingsoft.jp/application/third_party/smarty/libs/sysplugins/smarty_internal_template.php
    Line: 386
    Function: render

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